Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Tudor ‘reform’ treatises and government policy in sixteenth century Ireland

During the sixteenth century hundreds of treatises, position papers and memoranda were composed on the political state of Ireland and how best to ‘reform’, ‘conquer’ or otherwise incorporate that island into the wider Tudor kingdom. These ‘reform’ treatises attempted to identify and analyse the prevailing political, social, cultural and economic problems found in the Irish polity before positing how government policy could be altered to ameliorate these same problems. Written by a broad array of New English, Old English and Gaelic Irish authors, often serving within Irish officialdom, the military, or the Church of Ireland, these papers were generally circulated amongst senior ministers and political figures throughout the Tudor dominions. As such they were written with the express purpose of influencing the direction of government policy for Ireland. Collectively these documents are one of the most significant body of sources, not just for the study of government activity in the second Tudor kingdom, but indeed for the broader history of sixteenth century Ireland. This thesis offers the first systematic study of these texts. It does so by exploring the content of the hundreds of such works and the ‘reform’ treatise as a type of text, while the interrelationship of these documents with government policy in Tudor Ireland, and their effect thereon, is also explored. In so doing it charts the developments from origin to implementation of the principal strategies employed by Tudor Englishmen to enforce English control over the whole of Ireland. Finally, it clearly demonstrates that the ‘reform’ treatises were both central to government activity in sixteenth century Ireland and to the historical developments which occurred in that time and place.

Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.

Landscapes of kingship in early medieval Ireland, AD 400–1150

This thesis explores the evolution of kingship in early medieval Ireland (AD 400–1150) through a kingdom based and multi-scalar approach to royal landscapes. Through exploring the role of place and landscape in the construction of early medieval Irish kingship, this study will assess the relationship between the social, economic and ideological roles of the king in Irish society. Kingship in Ireland was vested in places, such that royal landscapes were the pre-eminent symbol of regality and authority. As such, an interdisciplinary study of kingship grounded in archaeological methodologies has a unique potential to contribute to our knowledge of the practice of kingship. Consequently, this research considers the material apparatus of different scales of kingships and explores the role of landscape in the construction of kingship and the evolution of kingdoms. It takes two major case studies; (i) Cashel, Munster and the Éoganachta federation; and (ii) the Uí Néill, Tara and the Síl nÁedo Sláine kingdom of Brega. Through interdisciplinary methodologies it charts the genesis and development of political federations, focusing specifically on the role that royal landscapes’ played in their evolution. Similarly, this thesis engages critically with the nature of assembly places and practices in Ireland, and focuses specifically on issues pertaining to the nature of assembly and the archaeological manifestation of such practices. It includes a list of 115 landscapes identified as assembly places, and through the analysis of this material, this thesis examines the ways in which different types of royal sites articulated together to create royal landscapes implicated in the exercise of kingship, and the construction and maintenance of authority. Moreover, through the analysis of assembly places within the context of the development of kingdoms, and structures of jurisdiction and administration, it also investigates the evolution of supra-regional scales of identity and community associated with the emergence of major political federations in early medieval Ireland.

Aesthetic campaigns and counter-campaigns. Jorge Luis Borges and a century of the Argentine detective story (1877-1977)

This cultural history of Argentine crime fiction involves a comprehensive analysis of the literary and critical traditions within the genre, paying particular attention to the series of ‘aesthetic campaigns’ waged by Jorge Luis Borges and others during the period between 1933 and 1977. The methodological approach described in the introductory chapter builds upon the critical insight that in Argentina, generic discourse has consistently been the domain, not only of literary critics in the traditional mould, but also of prominent writers of fiction and specialists from other disciplines, effectively transcending the traditional tripartite ‘division of labour’ between writers, critics and readers. Chapter One charts the early development of crime fiction, and contextualises the evolution of the classical and hardboiled variants that were to provide a durable conceptual framework for discourse in the Argentine context. Chapter Two examines a number of pioneering early works by Argentine authors, before analysing Borges’ multi-faceted aesthetic campaign on behalf of the ‘classical’ detective story. Chapter Three examines a transitional period for the Argentine crime genre, book-ended by the three Vea y Lea magazine-sponsored detective story competitions that acted as a vital stimulus to innovation among Argentine writers. It includes a substantial treatment of the work of Rodolfo Walsh, documenting his transition from crime writer and anthologist to pioneer of the non-fiction novel and investigative journalism traditions. Chapter Four examines the period in which the novela negra came to achieve dominance in Argentina, in particular the aesthetic counter-campaigns conducted by Ricardo Piglia and others on behalf of the hard-boiled variant. The study concludes with a detailed analysis of Pablo Leonardo’s La mala guita (1976), which is considered as a paradigmatic example of crime fiction in Argentina in this period. The final chapter presents conclusions and a summary of the dissertation, and recommendations for further research.

An investigation into reactivity and selectivity in cycloadditions of 1,3-dipoles with formamidines

The objective of this research was to investigate the synthesis of nitrile oxides and to study their reactivity in 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions with formamidines. Chapter one looks at the literature surrounding the 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition reaction. It explores the generation of 1,3-dipoles (mainly nitrile oxides) and dipolarophiles (predominantly amidines). It discusses the potential synthetic uses of the 1,3-dipolar cycloadducts. It examines both and inter- and intra-molecular cycloaddition reactions. It recognises the use of the 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions as a successful method in building natural products and oxadiazolines. The decomposition of oxadiazolines as a route to nitriles is also outlined in this chapter. Chapter two discusses the results of this research candidate. The preparation of nitrile oxide precursors - hydroximoyl halides - is outlined at first. The generation of nitrile oxides is then demonstrated, followed by the preparation of furoxans. Methods for preparing the reference materials (nitriles and ureas), which result from decomposition of oxadiazolines, then follow. The preparation of series of Δ2-1,2,4- oxadiazolines via the 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition reaction is illustrated in this chapter. The selectivity of the addition of nitrile oxides to dipolarophiles was tested by competition reactions, which are also described in this chapter. NMR techniques were used in the study of the kinetics of the 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions used for the preparation of a series of Δ2-1,2,4-oxadiazolines, which is addressed in this chapter. Chapter three charts the experimental procedures followed to gain results which are discussed in chapter two. It also outlines all analytical data produced during the course of this research.